Oil prices have pulled back from their highs on geopolitical tensions, but there is still a risk of supply disruption in the Middle East, according to Rystad Energy.

Crude oil futures rose slightly Thursday after a four-day losing streak as fears of a supply disruption in the Middle East eased and a surplus looms over the market next year.

Although Israel has held back from retaliating against Iran so far, the situation “could change at a moment’s notice,” said Aditya Saraswat, Middle East research director at Rystad Energy.

“In a widespread regional war scenario, Iran and Israel’s conflict could severely impact gas exports and lead to delays in oil development projects,” Saraswat said in a note Thursday (17/10/2024).

Here are Thursday’s energy prices:

 West Texas Intermediate November contract: $70.40 per barrel, up 1 cent, or 0.01%. Year to date, U.S. crude oil has fallen nearly 2%.

 Brent December contract: $74.24 per barrel, up 2 cents, or 0.03%. Year to date, the global benchmark has declined more than 3%.

 RBOB Gasoline November contract: $2.0358 per gallon, down 0.22%. Year to date, gasoline has pulled back more than 3%.

 Natural Gas November contract: $2.374 per thousand cubic feet, up 0.3%. Year to date,
gas has declined more than 5%.

Israel has reportedly told the U.S. that it will refrain from hitting Iran’s oil facilities in retaliation for the Islamic Republic’s Oct. 1 ballistic missile attack. The oil market sold off steeply Tuesday on reports that Israel will limit its strike to military targets in Iran.

An attack on oil facilities, however, could disrupt 1.4 million barrels per day of Iran’s production, Saraswat said. A full-blown war could lead to Iran choking the Strait of Hormuz, jeopardizing 12 million bpd of oil and “driving up prices sharply,” the analyst said.

Source: Spencer Kimball @ CNBC.com