Europe is taking advantage of weak Asian demand for liquefied natural gas and has boosted its LNG imports to the highest level ever for this time of the year, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. The lower Asian demand and spot prices are incentivizing cargo re-selling in Europe, which is at the end of the heating season but needs a lot of LNG to arrive in the April-October period to refill gas storage levels, which have dropped significantly this winter that was colder than the previous three winters.
In the early Friday afternoon in Amsterdam, Europe’s benchmark natural gas prices were on track to book a weekly decline amid milder temperatures and high LNG import levels in Europe, which eased the immediate concerns about gas supply.
The front-month Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures have also been falling this week after news broke that Ukraine and Russia had agreed to a partial ceasefire in the Black Sea.
The ceasefire, however, remains elusive as Russia set conditions for implementing a naval ceasefire in the Black Sea—removal of some sanctions on Russian banks and agriculture and fertilizer trade.
Despite the recent drop in European gas prices from the a two-year high in the middle of February, Europe continues to draw LNG while spot LNG prices in Asia remain close to the three-month low amid weaker demand.
Europe could have easier months ahead for LNG procurement as Chinese LNG imports are expected to drop this year, according to the latest estimates from BloombergNEF. China is set to see the first annual decline in LNG imports since 2022.
European gas prices have retreated since mid-February as the heating season and winter are coming to an end, and solar and wind power generation is picking up to regain some share of the European power generation mix, following prolonged periods of wind speed lulls and little sunshine in Europe during the winter.
The recent decline in natural gas prices in Europe could also offer some relief to power prices, which have remained high this winter on the back of the high natural gas price.
Source: oilprice.com, published: March 28,2025
